Who’s for actual?
That is the massive query in males’s faculty basketball as groups shift their full consideration to convention opponents in early 2025.
Historical past signifies the sector of nationwide title contenders is about pretty early on. Per Chris Fisher of On3.com, each nationwide champion since 2004 was ranked inside the highest 12 of the Week 6 Related Press ballot. (We are actually in Week 10.) With the streak now at 21 years, it is a good wager this 12 months’s champion will come from that dozen as properly.
Which means the SEC has the most effective probability to elevate the trophy. The Week 6 ballot included 5 SEC groups (Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, Florida) inside the prime 12. The remaining seven included two groups from the Massive Ten (Purdue, Oregon), two from the Massive 12 (Iowa State, Kansas), together with Duke (ACC), Marquette (Massive East) and Gonzaga (West Coast Convention).
With March Insanity across the nook, listed here are three true contenders and three pretenders from the 12 listed above. (All statistics and data are by way of Wednesday’s video games. Present rating is famous for every staff.)
Contenders
No. 1 Tennessee (14-1): The Volunteers suffered their first lack of the season Tuesday, a 30-point shellacking at No. 8 Florida, however they’re a legit contender because of stingy protection. The Vols rank first within the SEC in opponent factors per recreation (57.1), field-goal proportion (35.3%) and three-point proportion (24.6%). A gentle presence at level guard in senior Zakai Zeigler is a March should. Rick Barnes’ squad has the makings of a championship staff.
No. 4 Duke (13-2): Cooper Flagg has lived up the hype, averaging 17.5 factors, 8.5 rebounds and three.7 assists. He is an enormous cause why Duke could make a March run, however there are many different items on the roster that make Duke scary. The Blue Devils are reliant on the three-pointer, taking 48 % of their photographs from past the arc. On the opposite finish, Duke ranks third in KenPom defensive rating. The final time Duke ranked prime 5 on protection? 2009-10, which it ended with a nationwide championship.
No. 11 Kansas (11-3): Wins over North Carolina, Michigan State and Duke as part of a 7-0 begin had KU on the mountaintop, but it surely has suffered three losses since. For 2 causes, although, the Jayhawks are a contender. The staff has leaned into its protection recently. KU has held its previous two opponents to 51.5 factors per recreation on 27 % taking pictures. Kansas additionally has a mess of weapons on offense, which is ideal for a six-game run within the postseason. 5 totally different gamers have led the Jayhawks in scoring by way of their first 14 video games.
Pretenders
No. 15 Oregon (13-2): The Geese are 5-2 towards Quad 1 groups and their begin is their greatest for the reason that 2016-17 season. So what provides? Spotty protection. Oregon’s defensive score (an estimate of factors allowed per 100 possessions) has been alarmingly unhealthy in its previous two Massive Ten video games. Of their previous three Massive Ten video games, the Geese are permitting 12.3 three-point subject objectives per recreation. That will not lower it in March.
No. 18 Gonzaga (13-4): Early season wins over ranked Baylor and Indiana had Gonzaga flying excessive, however the Zags are trying much less like a real contender lately. Of the 12 groups listed above, Gonzaga is one in every of solely two with a losing record against Quad 1 teams (2-4). West Coast Convention opponents the remainder of the best way ought to increase Gonzaga’s win whole, however do not count on the Zags to elevate the trophy.
No. 20 Purdue (11-4): Zach Edey left massive sneakers to fill actually and figuratively. The Boilers are discovering out how arduous it’s to switch the 7-foot-4 Nationwide Participant of the 12 months. Purdue ranks within the backside half of the Massive Ten in factors per recreation (77.4) and factors per recreation allowed (69.8). Capturing guard Fletcher Loyer is taking pictures 48 % from the sector, however in 4 losses, he shot simply 36 %. Much more troubling: Loyer is a 48-percent shooter from downtown, however he’s 2-for-13 from three within the losses. That is a development that spells doom for Purdue.
