Bieber, 30 in Could, returns to the one group he’s ever recognized. The contract is a mirrored image of his present standing, as he underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in April, that means he’ll miss at the least a part of the upcoming season. This deal affords him the possibility to return to the mound in 2025 and set up his well being. If his efficiency can return anyplace close to his beforehand elite ranges, he can resolve to return to the open market. Though if he hits any sort of setback or doesn’t fairly bounce again instantly, he can financial institution the additional $12M and stick round one other 12 months.
Whether or not he can certainly get again in kind is the large query. Bieber’s ceiling is nicely established, as he received the American League Cy Younger award in 2020. He dominated the shortened season, making 12 begins that 12 months with a 1.63 earned run common. He struck out 41.1% of batters confronted, walked 7.1% of opponents and acquired grounders at a 48.4% charge.
However issues have principally gone downhill since then, even earlier than the surgical procedure. In 2021, his numbers dipped, which wasn’t precisely surprising as sustaining his 2020 stats over a full season would have been nearly unattainable. His 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout charge had been each off his earlier season however nonetheless sturdy numbers. He missed about three months on account of a proper shoulder subscapularis pressure.
In 2022, he stayed wholesome sufficient to make 31 begins and log 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, however with extra regarding indicators elsewhere. He averaged simply 91.3 miles per hour on his fastball that 12 months, after principally being within the 93-94 vary in prior years. His strikeout charge additionally dipped to 25%, nonetheless a bit above league common however a drop for him personally. In 2023, he missed time on account of proper elbow irritation, which appears in hindsight like a precursor to his surgical procedure. He did make 21 begins on the 12 months however with a 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout charge and related velocity to the 12 months prior.
Going into 2024, his identify was in loads of commerce rumors. The Guardians usually commerce gamers as their wage grows they usually get nearer to free company, doing so with gamers like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber considerably lately. In hindsight, maybe the Guards ought to have pulled the set off on a deal, however perhaps they didn’t obtain substantial presents on the heels of all of the crimson flags in 2022 and 2023.
For a quick second, hanging onto Bieber appeared like a superb transfer. He made two begins in the beginning of 2024, tossing six shutout innings in every of them and recording 20 strikeouts in these 12 innings. His velocity got here again barely, together with his fastball averaging 92.3 mph in his first begin of the 12 months. Nevertheless it dipped to 91.6 mph within the second begin and the information of his surgical procedure dropped earlier than he may make a 3rd.
Now he’ll be trying to come again from the prolonged Tommy John restoration course of, in addition to the regarding seasons that preceded the operation. It’s now been a very long time since Bieber had his greatest stuff over a full season, arguably since 2019. The shortened 2020 season was clearly exterior of his management, although all however one season since then has seen him miss important time. Within the one season the place he stayed on the mound, his stuff was clearly diminished.
All that makes this an attention-grabbing gamble for the Guardians, as this can be a pretty notable expenditure for them. They don’t typically spend a lot in free company, significantly on the pitching facet. As proven in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, within the final 15 years, that is the primary time they’ve given a pitcher greater than $7M. That’s partially a testomony to their skill to develop their very own pitching however they’ve additionally solely given 4 place gamers a bigger assure than this in that point.
Per RosterResource, the Guards at the moment are projected for a payroll of $107MM subsequent 12 months, already greater than what they spent in 2024. They may maybe drop that by buying and selling somebody like Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas however this Bieber deal is a good chunk of the funds both method.
It’s a dangerous proposition for these parameters. On condition that restoration from Tommy John surgical procedure usually takes 14 months or longer, the Guards would possibly solely get half a season or so from Bieber in 2025. If he hits a setback of any type, it might be lower than that. Even when he’s again on an enormous league mound by June, it’s no assure that he’ll be in good kind.
The upside play is that Bieber comes again to one thing resembling an ace. The Guards set up him into their second half rotation after which, ideally, as a key piece of their postseason rotation. At that time, he would decline his participant choice they usually may problem him a qualifying supply, which is able to most likely be within the $22M vary. Assuming he declines that and goes out in search of a serious deal, they might recoup draft decide compensation.
On the opposite finish of the spectrum are the situations the place Bieber isn’t fairly totally wholesome or just isn’t pretty much as good as he was earlier than, during which case he sticks round for one more 12 months at a good larger wage than in 2025.
It’s a danger the Guardians are prepared to take, which is probably because of the respect that the group has for him, however it’s additionally maybe a mirrored image of the present rotation scenario. The Guardians managed to win the Central in 2024, however the Bieber-less rotation was the weakest a part of the roster. They struggled to search out viable options there for a lot of the 12 months, discovering success on the backs of a good offense and elite bullpen.
Pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen both struggled or had been injured or each. Tanner Bibee was the membership’s solely starter who has persistently wholesome and performing nicely all 12 months lengthy. Matthew Boyd was a wonderful midseason addition, coming in after recovering from his personal Tommy John surgical procedure, however he grew to become a free agent at season’s finish and has a deal in place with the Cubs.
Subsequent 12 months’s Opening Day rotation for Cleveland at present consists of Bibee and lots of query marks. Guys like Williams, McKenzie and Allen are nonetheless within the combine however coming off these aforementioned difficulties. Journeyman Ben Vigorous is on the roster, as are pretty unproven guys like Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy. The Guards most likely have extra to do in upgrading that group however they may hope that Bieber can cost in like a proverbial white knight sooner or later in the midst of 2025 to avoid wasting the day.
The aforementioned Boyd offers a tough template of what Bieber and the Guards will probably be hoping for subsequent 12 months. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in eight begins down the stretch after which had three extra good outings within the postseason. That was sufficient to get him a two-year, $29M deal, however Bieber has a path to incomes excess of that. Boyd goes into his age-34 season whereas Bieber will probably be going into his age-31 marketing campaign in 2026. Boyd’s harm monitor report can also be extra in depth than Bieber’s and Bieber has the extra spectacular early profession numbers.
As such, with a robust end in 2025, Bieber may place himself to earn excess of Boyd simply did. Though that’s simply one in every of many potential situations in entrance of him and the Guardians within the 12 months to return.
